Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.
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Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo
01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump
02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 2026
05:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs
12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms
16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 2026
16:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 2025
17:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 2026
19:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended
20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year
26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything
31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months
33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold
38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran
42:04 TACO or FAFO?
44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?
49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble
52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets
54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo
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