Oil down: winners and losers

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. 

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

Links:  

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo

01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump

02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 2026

05:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs

12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms

16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 2026

16:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 2025

17:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 2026

19:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended

20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year

26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything

31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months

33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold

38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran

42:04 TACO or FAFO?

44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?

49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble

52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets

54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo