Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Ep. 224: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz on Macro Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Jul 12, 2024

Global Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz from BCG discuss macroeconomic risks, false alarms on recessions, AI's impact on growth, and the resilience of global trade. They advocate for eclectic approaches over complex models, challenging the inflation debate, and analyzing the longevity of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

57:58

Creator website

Episode guests

Paul Swartz

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

AI Summary

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Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Career choice should be based on skills and interest, not just earnings.

Debt risk assessment should consider growth rates alongside debt levels.

Transition from global convergence to divergence poses challenges across multiple spheres.

Deep dives

Career Advice for College Graduates

Choosing a degree or career should revolve around what you are good at or interested in rather than solely focusing on earnings power. Excellence in your chosen field will lead to financial rewards. Emphasize building expertise and maintain a long-term view on career progression.

Intro

2min

Background and Motivation for Writing a Book on Macroeconomics

9min

Navigating Recession Risks and Economic Recoveries

22min

Analyzing Inflation, Interest Rates, Debt, and Trade Dynamics

17min

Discussion on the Longevity of the US Dollar as a Reserve Currency

2min

Advice for Young Individuals Entering the Corporate World

2min

Discussion on Influential Books and Book Recommendations

5min

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office. Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He co-leads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York. They have recently published a new book, ‘Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk’. In this podcast, we discuss why there are so many false alarms on recessions, models vs eclectic approaches, how will AI impact economic growth, and much more.

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