Ep. 224: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz on Macro Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
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Navigating Recession Risks and Economic Recoveries
The chapter explores the challenges associated with predicting recessions and the importance of understanding various risk categories to assess recession risks effectively. It discusses the impact of real economy shocks, financial strains, and policy errors on the economy, emphasizing the need to move away from point forecasts and focus on building narratives around macro shocks. The conversation also delves into strategies for boosting productivity through technology adoption and the potential impact of generative AI on the service sector.
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