"This feels like 1996": Why a16z's Martin Casado believes the AI boom still has years to run (General Partner)

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Oct 7, 2025

Martin Casado, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz and a pioneer in software-defined networking, shares insights on the ongoing AI boom. He compares today’s excitement to 1996, asserting we’re still in early stages with a $3 trillion market potential in AI coding tools. Martin discusses the importance of a market-first investment strategy and critiques the conversations around AGI as distractions. He also highlights World Labs' mission to revolutionize 3D content creation, emphasizing its implications for robotics and VR.

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INSIGHT

AI Wave Feels Like Early 1996

Martin Casado sees today's AI wave as early-stage, comparable to 1996 rather than a late-90s bubble.
He argues real value and revenue exist now, so capital should follow or miss a major super cycle.

ADVICE

Invest From Markets In

Start investing by understanding the market first, then ask if the founder fits that market.
This 'markets in' approach yields better results than starting from the company outward.

ANECDOTE

Humble Start In Game Engines

Martin funded his undergrad by writing 3D game engines for budget video games.
That early game and simulation work pushed him toward computational physics and national labs.

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Martin Casado has lived through multiple tech waves—first as a founder, now as a16z’s leading voice on AI and infrastructure. He helped pioneer software-defined networking, then moved from academia to entrepreneurship, and today backs founders building at the frontier of technology as a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz. In this conversation, Martin shares his unique perspective on the AI boom, his market-first investment philosophy, and why he believes we’re still in the early days of AI’s impact.

We explore:

• Martin’s path from game engines and simulations to investing at Andreessen Horowitz

• Why Martin believes we’re only in “1996” of the AI boom cycle with years to run before any bubble

• Why Martin approaches investing “from markets in” rather than “from companies out”

• Why the AI coding market represents a potential $3 trillion opportunity

• The transformation of Andreessen Horowitz from a small generalist partnership to a specialized 600-person organization

• The concerning dominance of Chinese companies in open source AI models

• Why Martin thinks AGI discussions encourage “lazy thinking” and obscure meaningful conversations

• How World Labs is solving the 3D representation problem that could unlock robotics, VR, and more

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Transcript: https://www.generalist.com/p/this-feels-like-1996-martin-casado

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(04:50) Martin’s early career

(08:35) Martin’s shift from academia to founding his own company during an economic downturn

(11:25) The story behind Martin joining Andreessen Horowitz

(17:55) Ben Horowitz’s most impactful advice

(19:49) How Andreessen Horowitz has transformed since 2016

(22:20) Why product experience matters more than technical prowess for infrastructure investing

(26:26) Martin’s market-first investment philosophy

(28:39) Andreessen Horowitz’s framework for assessing founders and startups

(33:14) Why Martin thinks Hock Tan may be the best CEO today

(35:18) The controversy around non-consensus investing in early stages

(38:42) Why today’s AI boom reminds Martin of the mid-’90s tech environment

(44:38) How today’s AI boom differs from 2021’s tech bubble

(47:10) Why the promise of AI in organizations remains largely unrealized

(50:29) How Martin uses AI for coding and as a reading thought partner

(52:56) Why Martin doesn’t use AI for writing

(53:24) Martin’s interest in Eisenhower and historical parallels to today

(55:33) Two equally important paths for AI’s future

(58:33) Why Cursor stood out as the leader in AI coding tools

(01:01:14) The lack of inherent defensibility in AI and how to build moats

(01:03:30) World Labs’ mission to transform 2D images into 3D environments

(01:06:42) 3D’s emerging use cases and why the VR market may expand

(01:11:50) Why Martin isn’t an “AGI guy” and how the term erodes conversation quality

(01:14:59) How seeing AI as a continuum creates room for future products and investment

(01:16:28) The security and regulatory challenges of Chinese open-source AI models

(01:19:23) Final meditations

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Follow Martin Casado

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martincasado/

X: https://x.com/martin_casado

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Resources and episode mentions

—Books—

• The Weirdest People in the World: https://www.amazon.com/WEIRDest-People-World-Psychologically-Particularly/dp/1250800072/

• The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World: https://www.amazon.com/Beginning-Infinity-Explanations-Transform-World/dp/0143121359

...References continued at: https://www.generalist.com/p/this-feels-like-1996-martin-casado⁠

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