How to Judge Market Leadership and Investment Timing

Martin Casado has lived through multiple tech waves—first as a founder, now as a16z’s leading voice on AI and infrastructure. He helped pioneer software-defined networking, then moved from academia to entrepreneurship, and today backs founders building at the frontier of technology as a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz. In this conversation, Martin shares his unique perspective on the AI boom, his market-first investment philosophy, and why he believes we’re still in the early days of AI’s impact.

We explore:

• Martin’s path from game engines and simulations to investing at Andreessen Horowitz

• Why Martin believes we’re only in “1996” of the AI boom cycle with years to run before any bubble

• Why Martin approaches investing “from markets in” rather than “from companies out”

• Why the AI coding market represents a potential $3 trillion opportunity

• The transformation of Andreessen Horowitz from a small generalist partnership to a specialized 600-person organization

• The concerning dominance of Chinese companies in open source AI models

• Why Martin thinks AGI discussions encourage “lazy thinking” and obscure meaningful conversations

• How World Labs is solving the 3D representation problem that could unlock robotics, VR, and more

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Transcript: https://www.generalist.com/p/this-feels-like-1996-martin-casado

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(04:50) Martin’s early career

(08:35) Martin’s shift from academia to founding his own company during an economic downturn

(11:25) The story behind Martin joining Andreessen Horowitz

(17:55) Ben Horowitz’s most impactful advice

(19:49) How Andreessen Horowitz has transformed since 2016

(22:20) Why product experience matters more than technical prowess for infrastructure investing

(26:26) Martin’s market-first investment philosophy

(28:39) Andreessen Horowitz’s framework for assessing founders and startups

(33:14) Why Martin thinks Hock Tan may be the best CEO today

(35:18) The controversy around non-consensus investing in early stages

(38:42) Why today’s AI boom reminds Martin of the mid-’90s tech environment

(44:38) How today’s AI boom differs from 2021’s tech bubble

(47:10) Why the promise of AI in organizations remains largely unrealized

(50:29) How Martin uses AI for coding and as a reading thought partner

(52:56) Why Martin doesn’t use AI for writing

(53:24) Martin’s interest in Eisenhower and historical parallels to today

(55:33) Two equally important paths for AI’s future

(58:33) Why Cursor stood out as the leader in AI coding tools

(01:01:14) The lack of inherent defensibility in AI and how to build moats

(01:03:30) World Labs’ mission to transform 2D images into 3D environments

(01:06:42) 3D’s emerging use cases and why the VR market may expand

(01:11:50) Why Martin isn’t an “AGI guy” and how the term erodes conversation quality

(01:14:59) How seeing AI as a continuum creates room for future products and investment

(01:16:28) The security and regulatory challenges of Chinese open-source AI models

(01:19:23) Final meditations

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Follow Martin Casado

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martincasado/

X: https://x.com/martin_casado

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Resources and episode mentions

—Books—

• The Weirdest People in the World: https://www.amazon.com/WEIRDest-People-World-Psychologically-Particularly/dp/1250800072/

• The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World: https://www.amazon.com/Beginning-Infinity-Explanations-Transform-World/dp/0143121359

...References continued at: https://www.generalist.com/p/this-feels-like-1996-martin-casado⁠

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