ChinaTalk Party Time! Jon Czin on US-China in 2025 and 2026
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Jan 19, 2026 Jon Czin, a former senior China analyst and current Brookings Institution fellow, dives into the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations. He explores the surprising calm between the two nations amid global upheaval and the potential triggers for chaos in 2026. Czin discusses Trump's resurgence and its implications on China’s strategy, contrasting past trade wars with a more prepared Beijing. He also examines how the U.S. has misread China's leverage, and provides insights into Taiwan tensions and broader geopolitical stakes.
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Quiet But Unsettling Pause
- The U.S.-China relationship entered a surprisingly quiet, fallow period after high tensions.
- Jon Czin finds the silence unnerving but not necessarily indicative of hidden crises.
On-The-Ground China Visit
- Jon Czin recounts touring Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou during Liberation Day.
- He heard officials and businesses express preparedness rather than anger toward trade escalation.
Prepared Beijing Outperformed Expectations
- China entered the second trade war emotionally prepared and had a toolkit of retaliatory moves.
- The rare earths response outperformed Beijing's reasonable expectations.
