Trump vs. NATO: Could the military alliance survive without America?
Feb 13, 2025
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Camille Grand, a distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former NATO Assistant Secretary General for defense investment, dives into the shifting dynamics of NATO amidst Trump’s presidency. They discuss the potential fallout if the U.S. were to withdraw from the alliance and the urgency of European nations enhancing their defense capabilities. With tensions from the Ukraine conflict reshaping military spending and strategies, Grand discusses Europe's path towards self-sufficiency and the implications of a less reliant transatlantic partnership.
Trump's criticism of NATO highlights the urgent need for European nations to enhance their defense spending and capabilities independently.
Despite the potential for U.S. disengagement, European NATO allies possess significant defense resources and must unify strategies to maintain alliance strength.
Deep dives
Trump's Impact on NATO Budgeting
Donald Trump has challenged NATO members regarding their defense spending commitments, highlighting the disparity in financial contributions between the United States and European allies. He has demanded European NATO members increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, questioning why the U.S. carries a disproportionate financial burden. This rhetoric has raised concerns about the future of NATO, specifically regarding the U.S. commitment to European defense amidst shifting strategic priorities towards the Indo-Pacific region. The growing perception that Europe must enhance its own defense capabilities, regardless of U.S. participation, is becoming increasingly urgent as geopolitical tensions rise.
European Defense Capabilities
Despite concerns about U.S. commitment to NATO, Europe possesses significant defense capabilities that can be leveraged independently. European NATO allies collectively outspent Russia on defense in 2023 and house advanced military forces, including two nuclear powers, the UK and France. The ongoing war in Ukraine has prompted some European nations to take defense spending more seriously, with several already meeting the 2% GDP target set by NATO. However, there's still a level of complacency among others, as historical factors have made some leaders hesitant to fully invest in military readiness.
The Future of Transatlantic Relations
The shifting focus of U.S. foreign policy, particularly toward China and the Indo-Pacific, may strain the transatlantic relationship as European nations grapple with their defense roles. There is a clear need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its security, prompting discussions about making NATO more European-centric. Political divisions exist within Europe over the best approach to defense, with some nations advocating for re-engagement with Russia while others prioritize military readiness. Cooperation and unified strategies among European states are crucial to ensure NATO remains strong and capable of responding to future threats.
Trump has clear disdain for NATO – but could he really pull the US out of the alliance? And what would be its prospects without American support?
In the current geopolitical climate, the annual meeting this week of European military, security and political experts – the Munich Security Conference 2025 – has a special urgency. Just how far is the Trump administration truly in or out on European defence? And what are the prospects for NATO in the case of a transatlantic rift in the alliance?
Gavin Esler talks to Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Assistant Secretary General for defence investment at NATO.
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Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.