School of War Ep 263: Elliott Abrams on the Venezuela Raid and Risks Ahead
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Jan 5, 2026 
Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela and Iran, shares his expertise on the geopolitical landscape of Venezuela. He discusses the recent successful raid and the evolving role of the CIA, alongside Maduro’s reliance on Cuban bodyguards. Abrams highlights the challenges of oil recovery and the complexities of U.S. policy, cautioning about the risks for Chavista leaders. He also examines the precarious state of Cuba's economy and its implications for regional stability.
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CIA Capability When Leadership Chooses Action
- The CIA showed it can conduct precise, high-risk operations when leadership prioritizes action.
- Elliott Abrams says the raid revealed declining Cuban intelligence capabilities that aided success.
Maduro's Extensive Cuban Bodyguard
- Maduro relied on a large Cuban personal security detail because he distrusted Venezuelans.
- Abrams notes 32 Cuban guards reportedly died, underscoring how extensive that foreign protection was.
CIA Teams On The Ground Months Before
- Abrams recounts CIA teams entering Venezuela months earlier to map Maduro's movements.
- He contrasts that with CIA inaction during the first Trump term under Gina Haspel's leadership.