The Front Row Podcast

#33- Vaughn Tan : Why Uncertainty Creates Innovation

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Apr 23, 2025
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INSIGHT

Distinguishing Risk from Uncertainty

  • Risk involves known unknowns with measurable probabilities and outcomes.
  • Uncertainty means unknown unknowns with unmeasurable probabilities, demanding different decision approaches.
ANECDOTE

COVID-19 Risk Misjudgment Example

  • WHO's early COVID-19 travel restriction advice was based on flawed risk analysis under uncertainty.
  • This led to delayed action and worsened global pandemic outcomes.
ADVICE

Small Bets Under Uncertainty

  • In uncertainty, avoid big bets; take many small, informative experiments.
  • Use ongoing learning to reduce uncertainty rather than relying on fixed optimization.
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