Macro Mondays #62 - Shelter, liquidity & is it time to buy again?
Aug 19, 2024
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Bob Elliott from Unlimited Funds joins to dissect the current economic climate as concerns mount over liquidity and inflation, particularly in the housing sector. They delve into how recent CPI data is shaping inflation trends and what it means for market strategies. The conversation also highlights the strategic role of gold in investment portfolios during uncertain times. Finally, they explore dollar-yen dynamics and their implications for commodities, especially with rising skepticism about market strength amidst varying economic signals.
The upcoming Token 2049 event in Singapore aims to unite over 20,000 crypto enthusiasts and industry leaders, transforming the city into a vibrant crypto hub.
Current economic signals suggest a weakening US economy and fluctuating liquidity could impact both commodity prices and the equity markets significantly.
Deep dives
Token 2049 Singapore: A Major Crypto Gathering
The upcoming Token 2049 event in Singapore is set to be the world's largest crypto gathering, attracting over 20,000 attendees. Scheduled for September 18-19, it will feature prominent figures in the blockchain space, including Balaji Srinivasan and representatives from Solana, among others. In addition to the main conference, more than 500 side events will create a vibrant atmosphere, significantly transforming Singapore into a hub for all things crypto. The event, coinciding with the Formula One Grand Prix weekend, presents a unique opportunity for networking and insights in the crypto sector.
Interest Rate Trends and Market Implications
The discussion revolves around current trends in the dollar-yen trade and its implications for economic equilibrium. With the Bank of Japan continuing to hike rates while the Federal Reserve is likely to cut them, expectations for the dollar-yen rate have shifted. Current projections suggest an interim equilibrium around 142-143, amidst fluctuating liquidity conditions. Observations indicate that if dollar liquidity diminishes in September, it could adversely affect both commodity and equity markets.
Gold Trade and Market Dynamics
The conversation examines the complexities of the gold market, particularly in light of a recent soft CPI report. While there is ongoing interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier, changing correlations with other asset classes make it a tricky trade. It is emphasized that gold could serve as a tail risk hedge, especially during periods of inflation or geopolitical unrest, yet the dynamics of Asian and Western buying differ significantly. The current situation suggests that if Asian demand declines due to strengthening currencies, it may not support gold prices despite Western interest.
Economic Growth Outlook and Challenges Ahead
An analysis of the growth outlook highlights that the US economy is experiencing gradual weakening, influenced by elevated interest rates. Recent economic data reflects a mixed picture, suggesting that while some indicators like retail sales appear strong, underlying trends show signs of moderation. Concerns about the labor market also arise, as revisions in employment data could impact future interest rate decisions. The discussion emphasizes the importance of carefully watching these economic signals, indicating that the Federal Reserve must navigate a complex landscape before making any aggressive policy changes.