Geopolitical Cousins The Worst Takes on Venezuela
22 snips
Jan 7, 2026 Venezuela becomes a battleground of geopolitical myths as the hosts debunk lazy assumptions about U.S. intervention and oil dynamics. They explore how Saudi Arabia's choices impact market urgency and challenge the notion that past victories ensure future success. Insights on Iran, Cuba, and Greenland shed light on potential geopolitical shifts. The episode critiques Trump's maneuvers while illuminating political constraints on territorial ambitions. Ultimately, the discussion warns against overconfidence in global strategies and emphasizes that motives often align with U.S. interests.
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Lessons From Tabletop D-Day Games
- Jacob Shapiro describes playing D-Day tabletop war games with George, learning how hard it is to be the Allies.
- He urges visiting Normandy at low tide to appreciate the scale of the Allied operation.
Saudi Production, Not Venezuela, Moves Prices
- Saudi Arabia's production choices drive global oil prices and can shake weaker producers out of the market.
- Jacob Shapiro argues Venezuela's short-term impact is limited and Saudi policy will matter more for prices over 6–12 months.
Venezuela's Limited Market Leverage
- Removing Venezuelan sanctions might add only 300k–500k barrels, under 1% of global supply, but in a tight market that can still nudge prices.
- Marko Papic warns Venezuela is a multi-year fix; Saudi actions dominate near-term outlook.
