Jacob on Iran Risk and Regime Change

The Cousins™ dismantle the lazy myths swirling around Venezuela, U.S. power, and the idea that every successful strike is a reusable template. This is about oil, incentives, and why markets consistently misunderstand force until it’s already been applied. Most importantly, this episode is a warning against one of the most dangerous impulses in geopolitics: assuming yesterday’s clean win guarantees tomorrow’s easy one. When credibility is tested and restraint looks optional, the real risk isn’t chaos - it’s overconfidence.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:55) - Discussion on Venezuela and US Foreign Policy

(06:20) - Saudi Arabia's Economic Strategy and Oil Market Dynamics

(15:11) - Potential Geopolitical Moves: Iran, Cuba, and Greenland

(33:10) - Trump's Trolling Tactics

(33:26) - Venezuela's Impact on Trump's Strategy

(34:18) - Trump's Liberal Tendencies

(35:07) - Greenland and NATO Implications

(36:03) - Legal Constraints and Political Realities

(38:00) - Republican Party Dynamics

(39:09) - Geopolitical Myths and Realities

(50:27) - US Intervention History

(01:00:50) - Rare Earths and Global Strategy

(01:02:12) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro