The Real Science of Sport Podcast

Science of Sport Spotlight 3: TDF 2024 Preview

Jun 27, 2024

Can Vingegaard recover from his accident to challenge Pogacar? Explore Tour de France physiology, performance requirements, and durability in cycling. Speculation and predictions add excitement to the TDF discussion and debate. Fantasy league predictions emphasize uncertainties in forecasting outcomes.

28:02

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Quick takeaways

Jonas Vingegaard faces a challenge to recover from injuries and maintain durability for Tour de France.

Durability plays a crucial role in cycling performance, affecting power output and endurance under fatigue.

Deep dives

Vingard's Recovery and Tour de France Participation

Discussing the recovery and potential competitiveness of De Jonas Vingard in the Tour de France after a severe crash that resulted in a broken collarbone, collapsed lung, and broken ribs. Concerns raised by a trauma surgeon regarding his physiological capabilities and durability for high-altitude racing, indicating potential challenges in Vingard's performance and recovery.

Intro

6min

Cyclist Performance Analysis for Tour de France

5min

Discussion on Durability and Altitude Training for Tour de France

5min

Assessing Athlete Chances and Physiological Impacts in Cycling Races

8min

Fantasy League Predictions and Uncertainties

6min

The Tour de France begins Saturday and in this Spotlight, Ross and Gareth gaze into their crystal balls to discuss whether Jonas Vingegaard, the two-time defending champ, can recover from his April accident to challenge race favourite Tadej Pogacar? They explore how his injuries will have set back his preparation, and the challenges he'll have faced to balance recovery with adapting for the demands of a Grand Tour. They also explain how his 'durability' may be compromised, and how Pogacar may look to exploit this tactically, to kill the contest in Week 1. Add in some speculation and predictions we both hope are proven incorrect, and you have a TDF teed up for discussion and debate!

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The physiology of the Grand Tours

Durability in cycling, as discussed on the show

A field study of durability in elite cyclists, showing a 3% (average) drop in 20 min TT power after a fatiguing bout. Note that the fatiguing bout used (10 kJ/kg/hr) is equivalent to an easy-to-moderate mountain day in the Tour. UAE will want rivals to do a LOT more work than this before attacking in the final 20 minutes
A nice study looking at how fatigue affects the power-duration curve in elite cyclists. This shows that World Tour riders are more "durable" than Pro Tour riders, and that the greater the work before "the test", the greater the decline. Again, a cue for a rider who wants to win the Tour to put his rivals under pressure before the final climb

Resource for power estimates in the Tour