Assessing Athlete Chances and Physiological Impacts in Cycling Races

The Tour de France begins Saturday and in this Spotlight, Ross and Gareth gaze into their crystal balls to discuss whether Jonas Vingegaard, the two-time defending champ, can recover from his April accident to challenge race favourite Tadej Pogacar? They explore how his injuries will have set back his preparation, and the challenges he'll have faced to balance recovery with adapting for the demands of a Grand Tour. They also explain how his 'durability' may be compromised, and how Pogacar may look to exploit this tactically, to kill the contest in Week 1. Add in some speculation and predictions we both hope are proven incorrect, and you have a TDF teed up for discussion and debate!

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The physiology of the Grand Tours

• What happens to the hormone levels during a Grand tour?
• Review of the physiology of the Tour, with some high level overviews of the requirements to race a Grand Tour
• Performance requirements of racing a Grand Tour, with some nice power data from the very best cyclists

Durability in cycling, as discussed on the show

• A field study of durability in elite cyclists, showing a 3% (average) drop in 20 min TT power after a fatiguing bout. Note that the fatiguing bout used (10 kJ/kg/hr) is equivalent to an easy-to-moderate mountain day in the Tour. UAE will want rivals to do a LOT more work than this before attacking in the final 20 minutes
• A nice study looking at how fatigue affects the power-duration curve in elite cyclists. This shows that World Tour riders are more "durable" than Pro Tour riders, and that the greater the work before "the test", the greater the decline. Again, a cue for a rider who wants to win the Tour to put his rivals under pressure before the final climb

Resource for power estimates in the Tour

• Pogacar's best climb of the Giro, because of the work done before it, and the altitude
• Crazy high numbers from Switzerland on the short 43km stage where fatigue was not a factor
• Roglic's best Dauphine performance, contextualized against Pogacar at the Giro - just a few percent off where it needs to be to match Pogacar

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