Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Phil Suttle on US Recession Risks, AI Impact, and BoJ to 1%

Sep 15, 2023

Phil Suttle, founder of Suttle Economics, discusses US recession risks, AI impact, surprise factory building, Euro-area and UK outlook, US inflation forecast and Fed's response, China's weak housing market, and the future of central bankers.

48:30

Creator website

Episode guests

Phil Suttle

AI Summary

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

The US economy has shown resilience and can withstand higher interest rates better than previously thought.

Rising interest rates and the resumption of student debt payments may pose a drag on consumer spending in the future.

Deep dives

The US economy is stronger than expected

The US economy has proven to be stronger than expected, with forecasts for a recession being proved wrong. The resilience of the economy, particularly the consumer sector, has been surprising, and it suggests that the economy can withstand higher interest rates better than previously thought.

Introduction

2min

US Economy's Surprising Strength and Resilience

2min

Consumers' Behavior and Interest Rates

9min

Analysis of UK Auto Production Rebound and Lagging German Auto Production

2min

US Inflation Forecast and Impact on Fed

24min

China's Weak Housing Market and Slowing Growth

3min

The Future of Central Bankers and Personal Topics

7min

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about what will cause a recession, surprise factory building, view on Euro-area and UK, and much more.

https://macrohive.com/home-prime/

https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive

https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive