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Phil Suttle on US Recession Risks, AI Impact, and BoJ to 1%

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

CHAPTER

US Inflation Forecast and Impact on Fed

This chapter analyzes the recent inflation data and forecast for the US, highlighting the core inflation of 4% and the Fed's target of 2%. It discusses the factors driving inflation, including global supply and demand, China's contribution to deflationary pressures, and the shifting pricing dynamics in the services sector. The chapter also speculates on the future actions of the Federal Reserve, potential interest rate hikes, and the Fed's response in the event of a recession.

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