Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

This book, written by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz, provides a new framework for understanding and managing macroeconomic risks.

It challenges conventional model-based thinking and instead advocates for a more nuanced approach using 'economic eclecticism,' which combines frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives.

The authors aim to help leaders and investors develop better macroeconomic judgment, distinguishing between transient and structural disruptions, and avoiding costly false alarms.

The book promotes rational optimism over gloomy narratives and offers tools for readers to assess risks in the real economy, financial system, and geopolitical arena.