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Top Traders Unplugged
IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Sep 11, 2024
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of "Shocks, Crises and False Alarms," critiques the tendency toward doomsaying in economic forecasts. He introduces an intuitive framework for assessing macroeconomic risks, asserting that many extreme predictions often lead to false alarms. The conversation delves into the impact of misguided forecasts, particularly in the automotive sector during COVID-19, and discusses the dynamics of tight labor markets, inflation, and the importance of effective policy in navigating economic resilience.
58:46
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Quick takeaways
- Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak argues against doomsaying in economic predictions, emphasizing the importance of accepting uncertainty and resilience in the economy.
- The podcast promotes an eclectic framework for assessing macroeconomic risks, which integrates various disciplinary insights to enhance economic analysis.
Deep dives
The Uncertainty of Economic Forecasts
The discussion emphasizes that economic forecasts often exhibit an absurd level of certainty, despite the inherent uncertainties involved. Philip Carlson's book argues against doomsaying and constant point forecasts, suggesting that such approaches are futile in predicting economic downturns. Instead, it's essential to get comfortable with uncertainty, acknowledging that shocks and unforeseen events will occur and challenging the prevailing narrative that such events indicate impending doom. The podcast encourages a more realistic understanding of economic conditions and an acknowledgment of the resilient nature of the economy.
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