The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing BCG’s Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Global Macro: Recession Risk, Tariffs, Debt Dynamics | #582
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May 16, 2025 Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of 'Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms', shares his perspective on macroeconomic risks. He discusses the need to move beyond traditional economic models and the importance of adapting to shifting global dynamics. Topics include the implications of tariffs, AI's transformative impact on labor markets, and potential recession risks. He also examines the evolving role of the dollar and gold in today's economy, urging a focus on real economic behaviors over mere sentiment.
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Avoid Master Model and Doomsaying
- Reject the master model mentality in economics and avoid relying on precise forecasts.
- Resist doomsaying because media often exaggerates negative economic outcomes for attention.
Historical Context Informs Macro Risk
- Use historical context to understand economic systems rather than expecting exact repeats.
- Assess what it would take for extreme risks, like recessions, to become base cases.
Recession Types Vary Greatly
- Recessions typically fall into real economy shocks, policy errors, or financial crises, each differing in severity.
- This framework helps interpret recession risks more accurately over time.
