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MacroVoices #436 Tian Yang: Left & Right Tails
Macro Voices
Elections Reflect the Past
Elections function primarily as a referendum on the previous four years, distinguishing between 'change' and 'continuation' votes. Voters will favor continuity if they are satisfied with recent performance, while discontent leads them to seek change. The focus should be on quantifiable improvements in people's lives, particularly through metrics like real GDP per capita growth. Current indicators suggest a marginal preference for continuity, particularly among swing states demonstrating economic progress, which generally favors the incumbent party.
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