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Macro Voices
MacroVoices #436 Tian Yang: Left & Right Tails
Jul 12, 2024
Variant Perception CEO Tian Yang discusses leading indicators, recession risks, market positioning amidst uncertainty, stop-loss behavior model, and forecasts for crude oil, S&P 500, tech companies, and precious metals in a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis.
01:01:14
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Quick takeaways
- Despite concerns of a recession, leading indicators show resilience in labor market data and consumer metrics.
- Inflation concerns exist, but leading data indicates signs of peaking and market prices have already factored in expectations.
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Summary of Leading Indicators and Recession Signals
The discussion in the podcast focuses on the analysis of leading indicators and recession signals by Variant Perception CEO Tian Yang. Tian emphasizes that despite concerns about a potential recession, indicators like labor market data and consumer metrics show resilience. There are stresses in specific sectors like microbusinesses and consumer credit, indicating localized recession effects. However, the lack of broad-based negative feedback loops, supported by fiscal deficits and government interventions, has prevented a widespread economic downturn.
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