2min snip

Flirting with Models cover image

Bill Gebhardt - Replicating Discretionary Commodity Trading Systematically (S7E9)

Flirting with Models

NOTE

Embrace the Binary to Capture Trends

Balancing robustness and accuracy in trend measurement involves recognizing the inherently S-shaped nature of many signals, where extremes often exhibit mean-reversion tendencies. Specifically, returns in the highest decile may not be as favorable as those in slightly lower deciles, indicating that strong signals can occasionally mislead predictions. Furthermore, breaking down signals into quartiles reveals minimal statistical difference, reinforcing the value of binary signals. By aggregating various binary signals across different timeframes, it’s possible to derive a distribution that effectively highlights significant predictive capabilities at the extremes, enhancing the forecasting ability for the highest and lowest returning signals while mitigating the flipping behavior of individual binaries.

00:00

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode