Flirting with Models

Bill Gebhardt - Replicating Discretionary Commodity Trading Systematically (S7E9)

93 snips
Jul 1, 2024
Former discretionary energies trader Bill Gebhardt, now founder of 10Dynamics, discusses the transition to systematic trading, emphasizing signal incorporation, risk management, and operational strategies. Topics include trend-following models, balancing long-term trends with risk control, risk management in trading programs, operational challenges in shortening time frames, and systematically replicating discretionary commodity trading using Python.
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ANECDOTE

Career Start

  • Bill Gebhardt's career began during the 1987 stock market crash.
  • This sparked his interest in finance, leading him from chemical engineering to trading.
INSIGHT

Optimization Concerns

  • Optimization relies on stable statistical relationships, which markets often lack.
  • Bill's skepticism of optimization stems from witnessing failures, like Long-Term Capital Management.
INSIGHT

Trend Following Appeal

  • Visual learners, like Bill, are drawn to trend following because of long-term price movements.
  • Numeric learners tend to prefer mean reversion strategies.
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