Bill Gebhardt - Replicating Discretionary Commodity Trading Systematically (S7E9)
Jul 1, 2024
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Former discretionary energies trader Bill Gebhardt, now founder of 10Dynamics, discusses the transition to systematic trading, emphasizing signal incorporation, risk management, and operational strategies. Topics include trend-following models, balancing long-term trends with risk control, risk management in trading programs, operational challenges in shortening time frames, and systematically replicating discretionary commodity trading using Python.
Bill Gebhardt, founder of Ten Dynamics, transitioned from a discretionary energies trader to co-founding a fully systematic firm. Despite his discretionary past, Ten Dynamics uses a systematic process that Bill discusses in relation to signal types and risk management. Bill's career evolution and innovativeness demonstrate how his former experience informs and shapes the firm's current strategies.
Signal System Incorporating Short and Long Term Timeframes
Ten Dynamics employs a model that combines signals from both short and long term timeframes, focusing on capturing structural market shifts while managing risk through short term trends. By emphasizing the importance of balancing return opportunities with effective risk management, they achieve a nuanced approach that considers a variety of timeframes and signals.
Operational Risk Management through 'The Freezer'
Ten Dynamics emphasizes operational risk management through a system called 'The Freezer,' which halts trading if any issues are detected. The team's meticulous risk control involves running all processes in batch mode every 30 minutes, applying over 100 validation tests to ensure data integrity and prevent excessive trading, enhancing oversight to maintain system accuracy and efficiency.
Market Selection Strategy and European Commodity Markets
Ten Dynamics strategically focuses on specific market selection, particularly in European commodity markets, leveraging liquidity, commercial participation, and infrastructure cycle considerations to identify well-trending markets. By combining a diversified basket of stocks with targeted European energy markets, they navigate the trend versus jump risk dynamics, enhancing their trading performance.
Balance Between Human Oversight and System Automation
Ten Dynamics emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between hard-coded rules and human oversight in their trading operations. While relying on an extensive suite of validation rules for system accuracy, they prioritize human intervention only in exceptional circumstances and stress the role of the system in executing trades effectively, especially during periods of stress such as the COVID pandemic.
In this episode I speak with Bill Gebhardt, founder of 10Dynamics.
Bill spent the better part of his career as a discretionary energies trader, with roles at Koch Industries, Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, and Trailstone. In May 2020 he struck out on his own to co-found 10Dynamics.
Given Bill’s fundamental and discretionary background, it may come as a surprise that 10Dynamics runs a fully systematic process. This dichotomy serves as the foundation for much of our conversation, where Bill provides insight into where and how his discretionary background informs the systematic process, both from a signal and a risk management perspective.
We discuss the types of signals 10Dynamics incorporates into their process, how their risk management system is designed to reflect Bill’s experience managing discretionary traders, and how they’ve designed their operational risk management to allow them to trade intraday with a small team.
Please enjoy my conversation with Bill Gebhardt.
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