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#83 – Nick Bostrom: Simulation and Superintelligence

Lex Fridman Podcast

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Probability Assignment So What's More Less Probabilous?

Evaluating the likelihood of civilizations reaching technological maturity hinges on historical patterns of failure among similar civilizations. If most civilizations at a particular technological stage fail to advance further, it suggests a low probability of success for our own civilization. Conversely, our progress towards maturity indicates that other civilizations may have successfully navigated similar challenges, thereby increasing our chances of achieving maturity as we draw closer to it. This relationship creates a dynamic where the advancement of one scenario impacts the probabilities assigned to others. While progress typically reduces the likelihood of certain pessimistic hypotheses, unforeseen risks, such as new technologies presenting threats, can potentially shift these probabilities back, indicating that these assessments are subject to change based on evolving circumstances.

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