#83 – Nick Bostrom: Simulation and Superintelligence
Mar 26, 2020
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In this conversation with Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at Oxford and director of the Future of Humanity Institute, he dives into the mind-bending simulation hypothesis—suggesting our reality could be an advanced civilization's simulation. Bostrom explores existential risks humanity faces, particularly with superintelligent AI. He also discusses the complex relationship between consciousness and technology, the allure of extraterrestrial life, and the ethical dilemmas of future AI developments. Prepare to rethink reality and our place in the universe!
The simulation hypothesis raises questions about the nature of reality and the possibility of different physics within the simulation.
As civilizations move closer to technological maturity, their beliefs, decision-making processes, and perspectives on reality might transform in ways we cannot fully comprehend.
The exact probabilities and how they change over time are uncertain due to the limited knowledge we have about the universe and the motivations of advanced civilizations.
The possibility of artificial general intelligence (AGI) prompts us to consider the possibility of inclusive value systems and strive for high scores across multiple criteria.
Deep dives
The Simulation Hypothesis
The simulation hypothesis proposes that our reality is a computer simulation created by an advanced civilization. According to this hypothesis, our entire world, including our brains and experiences, exists because of an advanced computer running certain programs. The simulation could be created using current computer technology, including larger and more powerful computers. The hypothesis is of interest to philosophy, cosmology, and physics, as it raises questions about the nature of reality and the possibility of different physics within the simulation.
Simulation Argument and Three Possibilities
The simulation argument proposes that one of three possibilities is true: (1) Almost all civilizations fail to reach technological maturity, resulting in their extinction; (2) Civilizations reach technological maturity but lose interest in creating simulations; (3) We are living in a computer simulation created by a more advanced civilization. The argument suggests that the exact probability of each possibility is difficult to determine. However, as we make progress towards technological maturity, the probability of the first alternative decreases, while the probability of the second and third alternatives increases.
Implications of Technological Maturity
Technological maturity is a stage where a civilization has developed all general-purpose, useful technologies it is capable of developing. At this stage, civilizations might change their goals, motivations, and priorities significantly. The ability to create simulations with conscious beings inside could have profound impacts on the civilization's values, intentions, and actions. As civilizations move closer to technological maturity, their beliefs, decision-making processes, and perspectives on reality might transform in ways we cannot fully comprehend.
Indexical Statements and Likelihood of Simulations
The simulation argument suggests that if there are many simulated beings with experiences similar to ours, there is a greater likelihood that we are in a simulation. Under the bland principle of indifference, one should assign higher probabilities to being in the larger set (simulated beings) compared to the smaller set (non-simulated beings) if there is no other evidence available. However, the exact probabilities and how they change over time are uncertain due to the limited knowledge we have about the universe and the motivations of advanced civilizations.
The Doomsday Argument and Anthropic Reasoning
The Doomsday Argument suggests that we have underestimated the probability of humanity going extinct soon. This argument is based on the idea that our birth rank can serve as a random sample that indicates the likelihood of humanity's total population. By considering different hypotheses of total human population, we can update our beliefs about the future. Anthropic reasoning plays a role in this argument, as it suggests that we should reason as if we are a random sample from all humans that will ever exist.
The Simulation Argument and the Self-Sampling Assumption
The Simulation Argument proposes the possibility that our reality is a computer simulation. This argument is based on the assumption that we cannot know whether we are in a simulation or the original reality. The methodological principle underlying this argument, called the self-sampling assumption, suggests that we should reason as if we are a random sample from all observers in the simulation. While this assumption is weaker than the one required for the Doomsday Argument, it still raises the question of how we should reason about our existence in a simulated world.
Superintelligence and the Implications for Humanity
Superintelligence refers to AI systems that surpass human cognitive capacity. While the possibility of intelligence explosion and the pursuit of general superintelligence raises concerns about potential loss of control, there is also recognition of the positive impact AI can have on various domains. A utopian vision with AGI could involve a profound rethinking of values and an abundance of resources to improve aspects of life such as health, economics, and decision-making. It would prompt us to consider the possibility of inclusive value systems and strive for high scores across multiple criteria.
Nick Bostrom is a philosopher at University of Oxford and the director of the Future of Humanity Institute. He has worked on fascinating and important ideas in existential risks, simulation hypothesis, human enhancement ethics, and the risks of superintelligent AI systems, including in his book Superintelligence. I can see talking to Nick multiple times on this podcast, many hours each time, but we have to start somewhere.
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This conversation is part of the Artificial Intelligence podcast. If you would like to get more information about this podcast go to https://lexfridman.com/ai or connect with @lexfridman on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Medium, or YouTube where you can watch the video versions of these conversations. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate it 5 stars on Apple Podcasts, follow on Spotify, or support it on Patreon.
Here’s the outline of the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
OUTLINE:
00:00 – Introduction
02:48 – Simulation hypothesis and simulation argument
12:17 – Technologically mature civilizations
15:30 – Case 1: if something kills all possible civilizations
19:08 – Case 2: if we lose interest in creating simulations
22:03 – Consciousness
26:27 – Immersive worlds
28:50 – Experience machine
41:10 – Intelligence and consciousness
48:58 – Weighing probabilities of the simulation argument
1:01:43 – Elaborating on Joe Rogan conversation
1:05:53 – Doomsday argument and anthropic reasoning
1:23:02 – Elon Musk
1:25:26 – What’s outside the simulation?
1:29:52 – Superintelligence
1:47:27 – AGI utopia
1:52:41 – Meaning of life
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