Howard Marks: Oaktree Capital, Investment philosophy, Risk and Randomness
In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen
Quality of decision and market cycles
A good decision doesn't always succeed, and a bad decision doesn't always fail. The outcome of a decision doesn't determine its quality due to the randomness of the world. Success is a combination of timing and skill; relying on luck for extended periods is not sustainable. Age brings wisdom in understanding that quick actions may not lead to good results. Market cycles are crucial since the world operates in cycles, including markets, economies, and politics. Recognizing market cycles is essential as human behavior is not linear, and regression towards the mean is more reliable than assuming continuous movement in one direction.
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