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2024 predictions and labor market indicators to watch out for
The forecast for economic growth is around 2%, with the unemployment rate staying relatively stable. Inflation is expected to decrease, but still remain slightly above the target. The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates until the fourth quarter of next year. However, there are significant risks to the forecast and if there is a notable downturn in growth, the Fed may consider cutting rates. When it comes to predicting a recession, the most important indicator to watch is the labor market, specifically initial claims, unemployment rate, and payroll numbers.