Odd Lots cover image

Odd Lots

Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over

Nov 27, 2023
46:12
Snipd AI
2023 recession didn't happen; Optimism for a soft landing in 2024; Alternative indicators for predicting recessions; Consequences of bank capital rules; Impact of COVID-19 on global inflation and fiscal response; Concerns about deficit and resilience of consumer spending.
Read more

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The conventional wisdom of a recession in 2023 was proven wrong, leading to growing optimism for a soft landing in 2024.
  • Goldman Sachs economist believes the hard part of fighting inflation is over, with proof of concept demonstrated and no immediate indications for monetary policy reversal.

Deep dives

The Outlook for the Soft Landing Scenario

The podcast discusses the increasingly prevalent belief that the soft landing scenario, or at least the end of rate hikes, is becoming conventional wisdom. This optimism has solidified in recent weeks, despite initial forecasts for a recession in 2023. The COVID cycle has disrupted the traditional business cycle and challenged indicators like the inverted yield curve and the song rule. The labor market remains a critical factor in the soft landing scenario, and any weakening or softening will raise questions about the future path of the Federal Reserve and the need for potential rate cuts.

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode