2023 recession didn't happen; Optimism for a soft landing in 2024; Alternative indicators for predicting recessions; Consequences of bank capital rules; Impact of COVID-19 on global inflation and fiscal response; Concerns about deficit and resilience of consumer spending.
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Quick takeaways
The conventional wisdom of a recession in 2023 was proven wrong, leading to growing optimism for a soft landing in 2024.
Goldman Sachs economist believes the hard part of fighting inflation is over, with proof of concept demonstrated and no immediate indications for monetary policy reversal.
Deep dives
The Outlook for the Soft Landing Scenario
The podcast discusses the increasingly prevalent belief that the soft landing scenario, or at least the end of rate hikes, is becoming conventional wisdom. This optimism has solidified in recent weeks, despite initial forecasts for a recession in 2023. The COVID cycle has disrupted the traditional business cycle and challenged indicators like the inverted yield curve and the song rule. The labor market remains a critical factor in the soft landing scenario, and any weakening or softening will raise questions about the future path of the Federal Reserve and the need for potential rate cuts.
The Hard Part is Over: Disinflation and Monetary Policy
This segment highlights a Goldman Sachs economist's perspective that the hard part of fighting inflation is over. He states that the proof of concept for bringing down inflation without causing a recession has been demonstrated. Inflation rates have come down in G10 and emerging market economies without significant labor market deterioration. While there may be further declines in certain areas, such as housing and rent inflation, there are no immediate indications that would require a reversal of monetary policy or interest rate cuts. The economist acknowledges the importance of differentiating between good softening in the labor market and bad softening, and emphasizes the significance of lag effects in monetary policy.
Consumer Spending and the Impact of Fiscal Policy
The discussion touches upon the resilience of consumer spending in the US economy and attributes it to rising real incomes. Despite the decline in real disposable personal income due to inflation and the end of COVID support payments in 2022, households have been able to sustain spending through excess savings. The growth of real income, wage increases, and favorable interest and mortgage rates continue to support consumer spending. Looking into 2024, the impact of fiscal policy, including government-incentivized manufacturing in sectors like chips and electric vehicles, is viewed as influential in specific areas but not a major macroeconomic driver.
Productivity, Unusual Macro Dynamics, and Forecasting Challenges
The episode delves into the unique macro dynamics of the current business cycle, including supply chain disruptions, the influence of AI on productivity growth, and the challenges these factors pose for the economics profession. The economist emphasizes the noisy nature of productivity data and highlights the need for an eclectic approach to incorporating new developments into research and forecasting. While recent productivity gains have been positive, the economist remains cautious and suggests that sustained productivity boosts from AI are more likely in the latter part of the decade. Acknowledging the limitations of historical patterns and statistical significance, the economist emphasizes the need for humility when applying traditional economic rules to an unprecedented economic environment.
Going into 2023, the conventional wisdom was that a recession was likely in store. Instead, it didn't happen. What we saw is continued disinflation, even as the economic growth and the labor market have remained robust. Now going into 2024, there's growing optimism that a soft landing can be achieved. Stocks have been rallying, rates have been falling, and there's a widespread view that the Fed is done hiking. So will this come to pass? On this episode, we speak to Jan Hatzius, the top economist at Goldman Sachs, about why so many people got 2023 wrong, and why he believes the soft landing is now within reach.