Odd Lots Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over
46 snips
Nov 27, 2023 
Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, brings his macroeconomic expertise to explore the surprising resilience of the economy in 2023. He discusses why the anticipated recession didn't materialize and shares insights on favorable trends like disinflation and the strength of the labor market. Hatzius highlights the disconnect between rising unemployment rates and traditional recession indicators. With growing optimism about a potential soft landing, he believes we could be on the path to economic stability as 2024 approaches.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Disinflation Without Recession
- Bringing down inflation and rebalancing the labor market is possible without causing a recession.
- This has been demonstrated in 2023 across various economies, including the U.S., G10, and emerging markets.
Sources of Disinflation
- Further disinflation is expected in housing, rent, wages, and core goods.
- The lagged effects of previous monetary policy actions will continue to impact inflation.
A Different Cycle
- The current economic cycle differs significantly from previous ones due to the impact of COVID-19 and its aftermath.
- The pandemic created imbalances and unusual dynamics that traditional models struggle to explain.