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Biden’s top tech advisor on why AI safety is a “today problem”
Decoder with Nilay Patel
Continuous Increase in AI Capability and Perception of Progression Rate
There is a core assumption in everyone's mental models that AI capability will continue to increase almost linearly, without a predicted plateau. However, the speaker suggests that there may be an overestimation of the rate of progression in AI, pointing out the classic hype curve where excitement about new capabilities leads to exaggerated expectations. The speaker believes that real significant shifts occur after the hype curve, particularly in AI and machine learning. The conversation also touches on the notion that advances in capability are not as straightforward as perceived, as they always come with accompanying risks.
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