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We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network cover image

TIP623: The Art Of Decision Making w/ Annie Duke

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

NOTE

Base Rate Over Personal Experience

Focusing on personal experience and positive feedback is not enough when estimating the success of opening a new venture, like a restaurant. One should start by considering the base rate, which in this case, indicates that only 40% of first-time restaurants are still operating after the first year. This statistic should be the primary focus rather than personal achievements and positive feedback to more accurately estimate the probability of success.

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