The Dichotomy of Scientific Predictions

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Scientific predictions often present a dichotomy where researchers face the tension of having accurate predictions that they hope will not come true. This conflict is exemplified by Nobel laureate Shirley Roland, who questioned the value of waiting for predictions to materialize, particularly in fields like ozone depletion research. Scientists dealing with troublesome areas wrestle with the uncertainty of successful predictions that carry negative implications, highlighting the complex ethical and moral considerations inherent in scientific endeavors.

The Earth's climate keeps changing, largely due to the effects of human activity, and we haven't been doing enough to slow things down. Indeed, over the past year, global temperatures have been higher than ever, and higher than most climate models have predicted. Many of you have probably seen plots like this. Today's guest, Gavin Schmidt, has been a leader in measuring the variations in Earth's climate, modeling its likely future trajectory, and working to get the word out. We talk about the current state of the art, and what to expect for the future.

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Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/05/20/276-gavin-schmidt-on-measuring-predicting-and-protecting-our-climate/

Gavin Schmidt received his Ph.D. in applied mathematics from University College London. He is currently Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and an affiliate of the Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University. His research involves both measuring and modeling climate variability. Among his awards are the inaugural Climate Communications Prize of the American Geophysical Union. He is a cofounder of the RealClimate blog.

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