Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

276 | Gavin Schmidt on Measuring, Predicting, and Protecting Our Climate

May 20, 2024

01:19:48

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Gavin Schmidt discusses measuring Earth's climate variations, predicting future trajectory, and alarming global temperature increases surpassing models. Topics include historical data accuracy, greenhouse gases' impact, isotopic ratios, climate modeling dynamics, El Nino's influence, and challenges of achieving net zero carbon emissions in combating climate change.

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Quick takeaways

Human activities significantly impact Earth's climate through greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate models successfully predict global temperature changes and weather patterns.

Isotope analysis aids in reconstructing historical climate changes and enhancing climate models' accuracy.

Deep dives

Understanding Climate Change

Climate change is evident through various indicators such as rising temperatures, changing weather patterns, and shifts in plant hardiness zones. This change is primarily driven by human activities, especially the emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These activities have made humans a significant geophysical force, impacting the Earth's climate on a scale comparable to major events in the planet's history.

Ice Core Research in Greenland and Antarctica

00:49

Layers of Trees and Ice Cores Preserve Historical Temperature Signals

01:02

The Dichotomy of Scientific Predictions

00:53

Impact of Carbon Emissions on Future Climate

00:54

Introduction

2min

Exploring Climate Change: A New Perspective

5min

Unveiling the Impact and Modeling of Climate Change

10min

Exploration of Historical Climate Data Measurement Methods

5min

Exploring Historical Climate Data and Greenhouse Gases

12min

Serendipitous Encounter and Isotopic Ratios

7min

Modeling the Complex Dynamics of Climate

9min

Exploring Teleconnections and Global Weather Influences

3min

Unprecedented Global Temperature Increases and Weather Variability

13min

10.

Navigating the Path to Net Zero: Balancing Hopes and Realities

17min

The Earth's climate keeps changing, largely due to the effects of human activity, and we haven't been doing enough to slow things down. Indeed, over the past year, global temperatures have been higher than ever, and higher than most climate models have predicted. Many of you have probably seen plots like this. Today's guest, Gavin Schmidt, has been a leader in measuring the variations in Earth's climate, modeling its likely future trajectory, and working to get the word out. We talk about the current state of the art, and what to expect for the future.

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Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/05/20/276-gavin-schmidt-on-measuring-predicting-and-protecting-our-climate/

Gavin Schmidt received his Ph.D. in applied mathematics from University College London. He is currently Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and an affiliate of the Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University. His research involves both measuring and modeling climate variability. Among his awards are the inaugural Climate Communications Prize of the American Geophysical Union. He is a cofounder of the RealClimate blog.

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