This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo rejoins the show for a deep, deep dive into China's response to American export controls on advanced semiconductors and related technologies. How much hurt has the policy put on Chinese firms — and how far along is China in finding its way toward technological autonomy? Kevin Xu, author of the fantastic "Interconnected" newsletter, joins to talk about some of the big ideas he's written about in recent months and to play co-host as we grill Paul on China's efforts to get out from under American controls.
9:10 – The downplaying of generative AI in the Third Plenum’s decision document
18:25 – Why the Middle East is an appealing and important region for major AI players
26:20 – Why chip wars have evolved into to cloud wars
29:36 – How China has fared in trying to achieve its goal of indigenous advanced semiconductor manufacture
31:50 – Semiconductors: What lies within the “small yard” versus what products are unaffected under U.S. export controls
35:42 – The quality and reliability caveat to China’s goal of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacture
38:35 – The success of the Biden administration’s export controls and whether the controls have really put the hurt on anyone
46:00 – The Harmony operating system
47:47 – The importance of packaging
50:45 – Paul explains what he calls “China Semiconductor Industry Policy 3.0” and its predecessors
57:03 – China’s EUV lithography challenge
1:03:14 – DUV lithography and multi-patterning, and the importance of collaboration across the ecosystemin the process of making semiconductors at scale
1:11:50 – Huawei’s progress so far and remaining major hurdles and bottlenecks
1:18:42 – Paul and Kevin’s thoughts on whether the American strategic class will regret its approach to export controls and whether there is an off-ramp
Recommendations:
Paul: Ed Conway’s Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization
Kevin: Thurston Clarke’s The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America
Kaiser: The House of the Dragon (2022- ) TV series
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