China's Response to U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls, with Paul Triolo and Kevin Xu

28 snips

Aug 8, 2024

Guest

Kevin Xu

Guest

Paul Triolo

Paul Triolo, an expert in China's technological policies, joins author Kevin Xu to discuss China's response to U.S. semiconductor export controls. They delve into the significance of the Middle East in AI development and the evolution of the chip wars into cloud wars. The conversation highlights China's struggles for semiconductor self-sufficiency and the challenges of technological quality. Triolo reveals insights about the future of China's semiconductor industry and the impact of U.S. policies on this critical sector.

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INSIGHT

China's Stance on Generative AI

The Chinese government views generative AI with caution, focusing on its risks more than its benefits.
Generative AI's probabilistic nature clashes with China's preference for controlled narratives.

INSIGHT

Enterprise Focus of Generative AI in China

China's focus on generative AI is enterprise applications, not consumer-facing tools like chatbots.
This focus aligns with the government's push for "new quality productive forces" to boost productivity.

INSIGHT

Middle East as AI Battleground

The Middle East, with its cheap energy, financial resources, and strategic location, is a key battleground for US-China AI competition.
Middle Eastern investment in US and Chinese VC firms provides valuable information access.

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This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo rejoins the show for a deep, deep dive into China's response to American export controls on advanced semiconductors and related technologies. How much hurt has the policy put on Chinese firms — and how far along is China in finding its way toward technological autonomy? Kevin Xu, author of the fantastic "Interconnected" newsletter, joins to talk about some of the big ideas he's written about in recent months and to play co-host as we grill Paul on China's efforts to get out from under American controls.

9:10 – The downplaying of generative AI in the Third Plenum’s decision document

18:25 – Why the Middle East is an appealing and important region for major AI players

26:20 – Why chip wars have evolved into to cloud wars

29:36 – How China has fared in trying to achieve its goal of indigenous advanced semiconductor manufacture

31:50 – Semiconductors: What lies within the “small yard” versus what products are unaffected under U.S. export controls

35:42 – The quality and reliability caveat to China’s goal of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacture

38:35 – The success of the Biden administration’s export controls and whether the controls have really put the hurt on anyone

46:00 – The Harmony operating system

47:47 – The importance of packaging

50:45 – Paul explains what he calls “China Semiconductor Industry Policy 3.0” and its predecessors

57:03 – China’s EUV lithography challenge

1:03:14 – DUV lithography and multi-patterning, and the importance of collaboration across the ecosystemin the process of making semiconductors at scale

1:11:50 – Huawei’s progress so far and remaining major hurdles and bottlenecks

1:18:42 – Paul and Kevin’s thoughts on whether the American strategic class will regret its approach to export controls and whether there is an off-ramp

Recommendations:

Paul: Ed Conway’s Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization

Kevin: Thurston Clarke’s The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America

Kaiser: The House of the Dragon (2022- ) TV series

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