Sinica Podcast

China's Response to U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls, with Paul Triolo and Kevin Xu

Aug 8, 2024

Paul Triolo, an expert in China's technological policies, joins author Kevin Xu to discuss China's response to U.S. semiconductor export controls. They delve into the significance of the Middle East in AI development and the evolution of the chip wars into cloud wars. The conversation highlights China's struggles for semiconductor self-sufficiency and the challenges of technological quality. Triolo reveals insights about the future of China's semiconductor industry and the impact of U.S. policies on this critical sector.

01:35:08

Episode guests

Kevin Xu

Paul Triolo

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Quick takeaways

The podcast explores how U.S. semiconductor export controls may inadvertently push China to enhance its technological autonomy and capabilities.

Key discussions include the significance of the Middle East as an emerging hub for AI innovation and geopolitical strategy.

The conversation highlights the evolving dynamics of chip wars, emphasizing their transformation into broader 'cloud wars' in global technology competition.

Deep dives

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Navigating Tech Dominoes: AI and Semiconductors Shape Global Dynamics

01:27

Generative AI: China's Contradictory Stance

01:30

Just Getting Started: The Quest for Technological Sovereignty

00:58

Assess the Impact of Export Controls: A Case-by-Case Evaluation

01:24

Intro

2min

Exploring China's Modernization: A Study Tour Invitation

3min

Geopolitics and Technology: The AI Frontier

27min

China's Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency Journey

20min

China's Semiconductor Struggle

28min

Huawei Cloud and Geopolitical Tensions

8min

Navigating US-China Technology Competition and Its Societal Implications

4min

Reflections on the 1968 Campaign and Its Modern Parallels

2min

Exploring Semiconductor Supply Chains and Strategic Intrigue

3min

This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo rejoins the show for a deep, deep dive into China's response to American export controls on advanced semiconductors and related technologies. How much hurt has the policy put on Chinese firms — and how far along is China in finding its way toward technological autonomy? Kevin Xu, author of the fantastic "Interconnected" newsletter, joins to talk about some of the big ideas he's written about in recent months and to play co-host as we grill Paul on China's efforts to get out from under American controls.

9:10 – The downplaying of generative AI in the Third Plenum’s decision document

18:25 – Why the Middle East is an appealing and important region for major AI players

26:20 – Why chip wars have evolved into to cloud wars

29:36 – How China has fared in trying to achieve its goal of indigenous advanced semiconductor manufacture

31:50 – Semiconductors: What lies within the “small yard” versus what products are unaffected under U.S. export controls

35:42 – The quality and reliability caveat to China’s goal of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacture

38:35 – The success of the Biden administration’s export controls and whether the controls have really put the hurt on anyone

46:00 – The Harmony operating system

47:47 – The importance of packaging

50:45 – Paul explains what he calls “China Semiconductor Industry Policy 3.0” and its predecessors

57:03 – China’s EUV lithography challenge

1:03:14 – DUV lithography and multi-patterning, and the importance of collaboration across the ecosystemin the process of making semiconductors at scale

1:11:50 – Huawei’s progress so far and remaining major hurdles and bottlenecks

1:18:42 – Paul and Kevin’s thoughts on whether the American strategic class will regret its approach to export controls and whether there is an off-ramp

Recommendations:

Paul: Ed Conway’s Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization

Kevin: Thurston Clarke’s The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America

Kaiser: The House of the Dragon (2022- ) TV series

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