Why 'Prepare for War, Risk the Conflict' is wrong

Sophisticated preparation for war, including detailed plans and operational concepts, can paradoxically lead to conflict rather than prevent it. This preparation can create a mindset where political decision-making becomes hostage to military readiness, ultimately driving nations toward war, even when there is no initial intent to engage in conflict. The development of strategic concepts often leads to a sequence of expected actions that can trigger accidental war, particularly in unanticipated situations. Therefore, a more restrained and cautious approach to military readiness could help avoid war, challenging the common belief that preparing for war is inherently protective. This cognitive trap stems from misapplying interpersonal relationship dynamics to international relations, which is misleading and can intensify tensions.