Ep 141: Matt Pottinger on the Defense of Taiwan (Boiling Moat #1)
Sep 3, 2024
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Matt Pottinger, a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and Chairman of FDD's China Program, dives into the urgent defense of Taiwan. He analyzes how a potential conflict could ignite and the crucial need for deterrence against China. Pottinger draws historical parallels, discussing military preparedness and its paradoxical effects on peace. He warns against the myth of accidental wars, emphasizing that leadership decisions shape conflicts. The conversation highlights Taiwan's strategic importance in global supply chains and the necessity for coordinated defense among allies.
The critical importance of defending Taiwan is underscored by China's intent to annex the island, posing profound geopolitical and economic threats globally.
Effective deterrence against China relies on demonstrating robust military readiness and coordination among allies to discourage aggressive actions towards Taiwan.
Deep dives
The Urgency of Taiwan's Defense
The discussion emphasizes the imperative of defending Taiwan in the face of escalating threats from China. Xi Jinping has made it clear that the unification of Taiwan is central to his vision for the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,' indicating that the annexation of Taiwan is a prioritized goal. Recent Chinese rhetoric has amplified this threat, and actions taken by Beijing, such as supporting Russian aggression in Ukraine and increasing military pressure on the Philippines, signal a broader strategy aimed at testing international resolve. The potential consequences of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan include severe geopolitical shifts, economic repercussions, and a significant blow to global democracies.
Economic Implications of Conflict
A forced annexation of Taiwan could trigger an immediate global recession due to Taiwan's critical role in semiconductor production, which underpins technology and innovation worldwide. Major companies, including tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft, depend heavily on Taiwanese semiconductors for their operations and advancements in artificial intelligence. The disruption of this supply chain would not only hamper technological progress but could also destabilize financial markets and economies globally. Furthermore, the rise of an authoritarian regime in Taiwan would undermine regional alliances and the current democratic norms upheld in Asia.
The Importance of Military Deterrence
Effective deterrence against China centers around showcasing robust military capabilities and readiness, as this may dissuade Xi Jinping from making aggressive moves toward Taiwan. Deterrence involves psychological strategies that convince adversaries that the costs of war outweigh any potential gains, thus promoting a status quo that discourages invasion. Recent assessments highlight the need for both military preparedness and tactical coordination among allies to ensure that China understands the severe consequences of any military actions. This includes not only building military capacities but also enhancing collaborative defense efforts with allies like Japan and Australia.
Historical Lessons on War and Peace
The conversation challenges the notion that wars can occur accidentally, arguing instead that they are often the result of deliberate decisions shaped by historical precedents and political calculations. Notions of 'accidental war' minimize the agency of leaders and disregard the strategic decisions leading to conflict. By examining historical events such as World War I, it becomes clear that proactive measures against aggressor states are crucial to maintaining peace. The discussion posits that strength and military readiness are necessary to prevent war, countering the idea that reducing adversary pressures and maintaining a balance of power can lead to stability.
Matt Pottinger, distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, Chairman of FDD’s China Program, and author of The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, joins the show to talk about how a war over Taiwan might start and how it may be prevented.