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Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

NOTE

Narrative-Driven Approach to Understanding Cyclical Risk

The speaker emphasizes the importance of a narrative-driven approach to understanding recession risk in the current cycle. They suggest moving away from relying solely on indicators like the yield curve, which have proven unreliable in the past. Instead, they advocate for analyzing the distribution of cyclical risks and the different types of risks to accurately gauge the potential impact on the economy.

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