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Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Narrative-Driven Approach to Understanding Cyclical Risk
The speaker emphasizes the importance of a narrative-driven approach to understanding recession risk in the current cycle. They suggest moving away from relying solely on indicators like the yield curve, which have proven unreliable in the past. Instead, they advocate for analyzing the distribution of cyclical risks and the different types of risks to accurately gauge the potential impact on the economy.
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