Survivorship bias refers to the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that passed a selection process, while overlooking those that did not. This bias can lead to misleading conclusions about success and effectiveness. A striking example is Abraham Wald's analysis for the US Army during World War II. He assessed returning planes with bullet holes and concluded that protection should be placed on the unscathed areas rather than the heavily damaged spots, because the planes that were lost had sustained damage in critical areas such as the engine. Similarly, in the financial realm, many stock market funds report outstanding results over certain periods. However, this success is often the result of survivorship bias, as the majority of underperforming funds disappear, leaving behind those that appear to excel. Ultimately, it's essential to look beyond the survivors to understand the true performance and risks associated with various entities or strategies.
The perils of predicting the future
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