Akimbo: A Podcast from Seth Godin Sample size (E)
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Sep 18, 2024 Explore the perils of predicting the future and how misleading correlations can obscure true relationships. Understand survivorship bias and why analyzing failures is crucial. Delve into the limitations of data predictions, especially in fields like AI and music. Discover the importance of targeting specific audiences rather than aiming for mass appeal. Lastly, uncover how meaningful experiences can foster connections in the entertainment industry, emphasizing the need for integrity amidst competition.
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Spurious Correlations
- Correlation doesn't equal causation.
- Spurious correlations exist due to the vast amount of data available.
Abraham Wald and Airplane Survivability
- Abraham Wald, a statistician, helped improve airplane survivability during WWII.
- He advised reinforcing areas without bullet holes, recognizing that missing planes had likely been hit in those crucial spots.
Survivorship Bias
- Survivorship bias affects our perception of success, like with stock market funds.
- Funds that fail disappear, leaving only the seemingly successful ones in the comparison pool.
