The conflict in Ukraine has crystallised into a war of attrition. As military losses pile up on both sides, Russia could take advantage of this year’s electoral uncertainty in the West to strike a settlement deal on its terms. To ensure a durable peace, Europeans must make clear what red lines Moscow is not allowed to cross. And the history of the cold war may provide Europeans with some valuable lessons on how to do that.

In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR’s board member Ivan Krastev, who is the chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent fellow at Vienna’s Institute for Human Sciences. Together they discuss how NATO accession could strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position vis-à-vis Russia and if it could enforce the West’s red lines in Ukraine in the same way as it did in West Germany almost 70 years ago. How should the West approach negotiations with Moscow? What is the de-escalation potential of Ukraine’s NATO membership? How can Europeans ensure a durable peace on the continent?

This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.

Bookshelf:

How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter

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