Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Ukraine’s future in NATO

Mar 1, 2024

The podcast discusses how NATO accession could strengthen Ukraine's position against Russia, drawing parallels to West Germany's history. The importance of setting clear red lines for Moscow and European efforts to ensure lasting peace in the region are highlighted. The episode explores perspectives on negotiations with Russia and the potential de-escalation impact of Ukraine's NATO membership.

24:57

Creator website

Episode guests

Ivan Krastev

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Quick takeaways

Russian could exploit West's electoral uncertainty for a settlement deal.

NATO accession can bolster Ukraine's negotiation power and reinforce West's red lines.

Deep dives

The Different Wars in Ukraine

The podcast discusses the complexity of the wars in Ukraine, explaining that the conflict did not start in 2022 but dates back to 2014. It highlights Russia's involvement in attempting to politically control Ukraine, leading to different phases of war. The current war is seen as a clash of civilizations between Russia and the West, emphasizing the evolving nature of conflict and the need to redefine victory and defeat.

Pushing for Ukraine's NATO Membership

00:21

Introduction

5min

Evolution of Perspectives on Ukraine's NATO Future and Escalating Concerns

2min

Exploring the West German Scenario and Its Relevance to Ukraine

2min

Navigating Ukraine's NATO Dilemma

13min

Perspective Shift: Global Issues and Their Implications

2min

The conflict in Ukraine has crystallised into a war of attrition. As military losses pile up on both sides, Russia could take advantage of this year’s electoral uncertainty in the West to strike a settlement deal on its terms. To ensure a durable peace, Europeans must make clear what red lines Moscow is not allowed to cross. And the history of the cold war may provide Europeans with some valuable lessons on how to do that.

In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR’s board member Ivan Krastev, who is the chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent fellow at Vienna’s Institute for Human Sciences. Together they discuss how NATO accession could strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position vis-à-vis Russia and if it could enforce the West’s red lines in Ukraine in the same way as it did in West Germany almost 70 years ago. How should the West approach negotiations with Moscow? What is the de-escalation potential of Ukraine’s NATO membership? How can Europeans ensure a durable peace on the continent?

This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.

Bookshelf:

How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter

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Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Ukraine’s future in NATO

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

The Different Wars in Ukraine

Importance of Implementing the West German Model

NATO Membership for Ukraine and Western Unity

Pushing for Ukraine's NATO Membership

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts