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Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Dwarkesh Podcast

NOTE

Neglecting Insight Leads to Missed Opportunities

Insufficient attention to previous scaling results hindered progress in understanding model improvement. The discovery from DeepMind regarding Bayesian optimization and its impact on eliminating tree search is crucial yet overlooked. Furthermore, the 2017 Baidu paper on scaling laws, which emphasized the continuing relevance of scaling, was underestimated and neglected due to its lack of immediate implications. The prevailing misconception that algorithms outweigh compute in importance resulted from a misrepresentation of research origins, where papers failed to accurately reflect the true process of idea development.

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