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Macroeconomic Factors Drive Bond Yields
The total size of government borrowing and the mix of treasury issuances are important economic realities, but they are secondary to macroeconomic factors such as growth, inflation, and job data in determining the overall direction of bond yields. An example is the third quarter, where a larger than expected treasury supply announcement coincided with strong nominal GDP growth, contributing to an increase in rates. Conversely, in the fourth quarter, moderated data led to a calming effect on rates.