Mark Cabana, longtime rates strategist at Bank of America, discusses the big questions in the bond market. Topics include who will buy all the bonds the US is selling, the impact of liquidity on the broader market, and the implications of balance sheet policy on market actors.
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Quick takeaways
The Fed's decision on interest rates and potential declaration of victory will signal the beginning of a cutting cycle.
Commercial banks have increased liquidity preferences, leading to higher demand for reserves and impacting the Fed's balance sheet.
Deep dives
Fed Meeting, QT, and Treasury Refunding
The podcast episode discusses the upcoming Fed meeting and the various factors that will impact the markets. It highlights the importance of the Fed's decision on interest rates and its potential declaration of victory, signaling the beginning of a cutting cycle. The episode also explores the concept of quantitative tightening (QT) and the potential effects on the market. Additionally, it delves into the quarterly refunding from the Treasury and the influence it has on term premiums. The episode emphasizes the role of macroeconomic data in determining the direction of bond yields.
Bank Demand for Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet
The podcast episode discusses the demand for liquidity at commercial banks and its impact on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It highlights the increased liquidity preferences of commercial banks due to factors such as SVB's securities losses and changes in liquidity regulations. The episode also examines the potential consequences of a large balance sheet, including the negative net interest margin faced by the Fed. It further explores the dynamic relationship between interest rates, demand for reserves, and commercial bank liquidity preferences.
Quantitative Tightening and Market Perception
The podcast episode explores the role of the Fed's balance sheet and quantitative tightening (QT) in market perception and risk asset valuations. It challenges the notion that balance sheet policy is a significant driver of risk asset valuations, citing the disproven thesis that shrinking the balance sheet would negatively impact risk assets. However, it acknowledges the role of the balance sheet in reinforcing the broader stance of monetary policy. The episode also highlights the varying demand for reserves and liquidity based on macroeconomic conditions and interest rates.
Negative Equity and Cost of Large Balance Sheet
The podcast episode discusses the issue of negative equity on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the associated costs. It highlights the discrepancy between the interest paid on reserves and the yield generated from assets, leading to a negative net interest margin for the Fed. The episode explores the reasons behind the Fed's desire to shrink the balance sheet, including the goal of avoiding an outsized footprint in financial markets. It also examines the political implications and lack of attention given to the negative equity issue in the U.S.
It's a busy week for the bond market with a meeting of the Federal Reserve and the release of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding statement. While a lot of people have been focusing on when the Fed will cut benchmark interest rates, there's also an ongoing debate about how fast the central bank will shrink its balance sheet given last year's banking crisis and the recent drama in the repo market. In this episode, we speak with Mark Cabana, longtime rates strategist at Bank of America, about the big questions lurking behind the week's events. We talk about who will buy all the bonds the US is selling, what will happen to bank balance sheets as rates go down, and the impact of liquidity on the broader market.