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Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and modern organizations with Dan Davies
Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)
Complexity and Transition from Math to Metaphor in Economics
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In economics, a clear distinction exists between mathematical precision and the metaphorical abstraction required when dealing with complexity. For precise financial instruments like US government bonds, mathematical models provide definitive answers due to a complete information environment, allowing for accuracy down to minute decimal places. However, as the analysis shifts toward forecasting complex variables such as future inflation, the inability to access the entirety of relevant information forces a reliance on simplifications and abstractions. This process inherently involves discarding information, as statisticians and economists must streamline data into more manageable forms. The transition from concrete mathematical calculations to more metaphorical interpretations is critical in understanding the limitations and challenges faced in economic forecasting. This highlights the trade-off between mathematical rigor and the necessary simplifications needed to navigate increasingly complex economic landscapes.
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