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Ep 141: Matt Pottinger on the Defense of Taiwan (Boiling Moat #1)

School of War

NOTE

Risk of escalation vs risk of appeasement

China can thrive without exerting total dominance over vital resources, contrasting the perceptions of historical embargoes and their impacts. Prior to the United States' oil embargo, Japan had already committed significant aggression in China and Asia, illustrating that the U.S. was reacting to an existing threat rather than provoking a conflict. The debate between the risks of war and escalation versus the dangers of appeasement reveals a critical insight: accommodating aggressive powers only encourages further demands and expansion. While some focus narrowly on the potential for conflict, this perspective risks underestimating the long-term consequences of yielding to adversarial pressures, which often results in greater concessions and increased aggression.

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