There are two types of thinking: inside approach and outside approach, according to Kahneman Tversky
Mental simulations tend to be idealized and oversimplified, not providing a comprehensive representation of how things will go
Optimism bias is the tendency to see the future in positive terms
Whether it’s a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it’ll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That’s because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.” (You also have an “optimism bias” and a bad case of overconfidence.) But don’t worry: we’ve got the solution.
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