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The Memo by Howard Marks cover image

The Insight: Conversations – Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks

The Memo by Howard Marks

NOTE

The Importance of Separating Outcome from Decision Quality

In the short run, it's important to ignore outcomes because luck plays a big role. For example, if someone bets against me on a coin flip, a single outcome doesn't matter. We need to focus on what we don't know and how we interpret the facts. Analyzing information from different perspectives and considering others' knowledge improves decision-making. Short-term outcomes don't provide much information, so we should treat decisions as bets and consider others' perspectives to increase decision quality.

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