The interference of luck and information in decision-making

The main idea behind Annie Duke's book 'Thinking in Bets' is that decision-making is complicated by the interference of luck and incomplete information. When making decisions, individuals cannot know everything and are influenced by luck in the outcomes they observe. This creates a challenge in assessing the quality of decisions in hindsight, as it is difficult to separate outcome quality from decision quality. Duke emphasizes the need to embrace decision-making under uncertainty and improve the quality of decisions in light of limited information and the unpredictable influence of luck.