The Memo by Howard Marks The Insight: Conversations – Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks
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Dec 6, 2023 
Former professional poker player Annie Duke joins Howard Marks to discuss decision-making, luck, decision quality, and uncertainty. They explore the importance of diverse perspectives, improving decision quality over time, risk management, and the challenges of using probabilities for decision-making.
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Thinking in Bets
- Decision-making is challenging due to the influence of luck and hidden information.
- Separate outcome quality from decision quality to improve decision-making.
Investing as Betting
- Approach uncertain situations like bets, considering chances and incomplete knowledge.
- Investing requires coping with incomplete knowledge, luck, and skill.
Decision Quality vs. Outcome
- Separate decision logic from outcomes, especially in the short term due to luck's influence.
- Focus on what's unknown, fact modeling, and diverse perspectives to improve decision quality.